Finding Earth 2.0
Exoearth evidence observatory · population

The catalogue is the visible tip

Finding Earth 2.0 reconstructs the selection that shaped Kepler DR25, then asks which intrinsic population is consistent with the signals that survived.

Fixed domain · selected GK dwarfs · reliability and completeness propagated

114,105

selected target stars

survey denominator

89

catalogue candidates

observed entries

78.3

effective stars

selection-corrected exposure

0.692

planets per star

0.412–1.209 (16–84%)

What the analysis found

Detection losses dominate near an Earth-like orbit

The difference between a catalogue count and a population estimate is the missing part of the survey: geometric transits that never occur, phases that were not observed, signals the pipeline misses, candidates rejected by vetting, and remaining false-alarm uncertainty. Reversing that chain produces a broad posterior rather than a single corrected count.

Observed / corrected lens

One survey, two different questions

What entered the catalogue

OBSERVED

114,105

searched stars · selected GK dwarfs

89

catalogue candidates · KOIs in the fixed box

These counts describe detected and reliability-adjusted signals in the declared DR25 sample. They retain the imprint of transit geometry, observing windows, pipeline recovery and vetting.

Observed Kepler DR25 candidate funnel compared with the inferred intrinsic occurrence posterior
OBSERVED and DERIVED survey counts lead to a MODEL-INFERRED fixed-box occurrence posterior. The labels are part of the result.