Finding Earth 2.0
Author perspective · hypotheses and questions, not observational conclusions · Biswajit Jana

Beyond Earth 2.0 — An Author’s Perspective

I began with a simple question and built a reproducible research system around it. The deeper lesson was that finding another Earth is less about sorting a catalogue and more about learning exactly what each observation can—and cannot—tell us.

164,209 source records · 6,354 confirmed planets · every claim labelled by evidence type

Why I built it

A question became a way of thinking

I wanted to know which known world comes closest to Earth. At first that sounded like a ranking problem. Building the pipeline showed me that it is really an evidence problem: the catalogue mixes observations, derived quantities, model estimates and missing uncertainty.

So I built more than a score. I built a source trail, uncertainty propagation, Solar-System controls, observable-specific laboratories and a growing dictionary that forces me to name what kind of claim I am making.

The project now asks a better question: given how our surveys select what we see, what does the evidence imply about the population beyond the visible catalogue—and which observation would teach us the most next? Reconstructing the Kepler DR25 selection function made that lesson quantitative.

Learning log

Six ideas that changed how I read exoplanet data

01

The catalogue is shaped by the telescope

A list of discoveries is not a census of the Galaxy. Transit geometry, observing windows, noise, pipeline recovery and vetting decide which planets become visible to us.

02

A value in a table is not always a measurement

Masses and other parameters can be inferred, calculated by an archive, or copied through composite records. I learned to ask where every number came from before using it.

03

Earth-like is a bundle of separate questions

Size, irradiation, composition, atmosphere, observability and biology require different evidence. Combining them too early creates confidence the observations do not support.

04

Uncertainty can change the shortlist

A planet is better represented by a distribution than a point. Propagating published error bars exposes fragile ranks and prevents false precision.

05

A good control can break a beautiful metric

Venus looks deceptively Earth-like to a bulk-property score. Running the Solar System through the same machinery reveals what the score cannot know.

06

The next observation is part of the answer

A useful search should identify the measurement that would reduce uncertainty most, rather than ending with a static ranking.

Research dictionary

The words I needed to keep straight

This dictionary is part of the method. Each label limits what a number is allowed to claim, from a direct observation to a conditional forecast.

Observed
A value directly tied to an observation or published fit.
Derived
A quantity calculated from observed inputs with a stated equation.
Model-inferred
A value estimated through a model, prior or population relation.
Scenario
A conditional result under deliberately chosen assumptions.
Forecast
A prediction about what a future observation or mission could measure.
Simulated
Artificial data used to test a pipeline or inference procedure.
Completeness
The chance a real signal in a defined survey domain would be recovered and selected.
Reliability
The fraction of selected candidates expected to be genuine rather than false alarms.
Habitable zone
A model-dependent irradiation range where surface liquid water may be possible under specified atmospheric assumptions.
Occurrence rate
The inferred average number of planets per star in an explicitly defined population domain.
Evidence graph
The project’s map from a claim back through quantities, models, measurements and sources.
Earth 2.0 index
A transparent prioritisation score. It is not a probability of habitability or life.

Author perspective

Questions I carry forward

These are my hypotheses, values and open questions. They are not NASA or ESA conclusions and they are not outputs of the candidate model.

Is finding a physically compatible world enough—or only the start?
Should humanity transmit, listen, or decide through a wider public process?
What message could remain intelligible after a century of delay?
Could autonomous probes make exploration more realistic than human travel?
How would relativistic time change the human meaning of a journey?
What would evidence of another civilisation ask humanity to become?

Author roadmap · living project

What I plan to build next

The next version should earn more confidence, not add a more confident score. My plan is to shorten the path from a changing archive record to a reproducible decision about the next useful observation.

01 · CONTINUOUS

Archive updates → validated releases

Keep the evidence alive

Refresh public archives on schedule, preserve every source hash, and publish clear diffs when the catalogue or a conclusion changes.

02 · NEXT MODEL

Separate errors → joint decisions

Connect the uncertainties

Build joint stellar-and-planet posteriors, add instrument likelihoods and compare information gain per unit of observing time.

03 · NEXT EVIDENCE

Scenarios → testable evidence

Move closer to atmospheres

Add target-specific ephemerides, XUV histories and retrieval evidence while keeping reductions and natural alternatives attached.

04 · LONG HORIZON

Forecasts → observations

Grow with new observatories

Version adapters for Gaia DR4, PLATO, Roman, ELT and HWO products only when public data exist, then revisit distant-world and contact limits.

Automatic data pulse

The site checks for a fresher processed snapshot whenever this page opens

The full archive pipeline downloads, validates, hashes and processes data in an automated workflow. Scientific changes remain review-gated before publication; this browser check can surface the newest committed result without pretending that an unchecked archive row is analysis-ready.

Checking the latest research snapshot…

Source records
164,209
Confirmed planets
6,354

Author conclusion

“I did not find a second Earth. I learned how difficult it is to earn that conclusion—and built a system that makes every step of the search inspectable.”

The most honest result is not a winner. It is a map of what humanity has measured, what the models add, where the selection effects hide, and what evidence is still missing. My plan is to keep that map alive, make its uncertainty more connected, and let new observations—not ambition alone—move its conclusions forward.