Finding Earth 2.0
Exoearth evidence observatory · falsification

A model must be allowed to fail

Earth, Venus, Mars, Mercury and Jupiter pass through the same scoring machinery as the exoplanets. Their known outcomes reveal what the metrics cannot infer.

Five unranked Solar-System controls · same equations · known physical counterexamples

OBSERVED CONTROL WITH DERIVED MODEL OUTPUTSInspect methods →Trace evidence →

5

control worlds

kept outside exoplanet ranks

0.874

Venus ESI

high bulk similarity

0.0

Venus HZ probability

conservative boundary

0

life probabilities

no metric estimates biology

What the analysis found

Venus breaks the easy interpretation

Venus receives a high Earth Similarity Index even though its observed surface is hostile. Mars can satisfy a nominal habitable-zone test while remaining cold, arid and low-pressure. These controls falsify the reading of similarity or orbital irradiation as a habitability detector.

OBSERVED CONTROL WITH DERIVED MODEL OUTPUTS

Earth

ESI
1.000
Conservative HZ
1.00

only known inhabited control

OBSERVED CONTROL WITH DERIVED MODEL OUTPUTS

Mars

ESI
0.712
Conservative HZ
1.00

cold arid low-pressure control

OBSERVED CONTROL WITH DERIVED MODEL OUTPUTS

Venus

ESI
0.874
Conservative HZ
0.00

hostile runaway-greenhouse control

OBSERVED CONTROL WITH DERIVED MODEL OUTPUTS

Mercury

ESI
0.571
Conservative HZ
0.00

airless hot/cold control

OBSERVED CONTROL WITH DERIVED MODEL OUTPUTS

Jupiter

ESI
0.246
Conservative HZ
0.00

gas-giant control

Solar-System controls showing high similarity and habitable-zone scores alongside known hostile outcomes
The controls are observed Solar-System worlds with derived model outputs. They diagnose model scope and remain unranked.