What the corrected fit shows
The timing-adjusted transit is strongly preferred by ΔBIC = 30092.5. Its fitted midpoint is +1.444 hours from the historical prediction; the model's mid-transit depth is 16785.5 ± 100.3 ppm. The support decision uses ΔBIC ≥ 10; timing-search p-values are not presented as blind-detection probabilities.

Explicit model comparison
BIC = 34127.75
BIC = 4035.28
The null fits a local intercept and slope. The transit adds bounded midpoint, radius-ratio, and impact-parameter freedom while retaining the same baseline terms. Fixed limb darkening and circular geometry make this a diagnostic fit rather than a full system retrieval.
Multi-sector robustness and noise
The archive prediction was timing-adjusted independently in 2 fitted sector(s) (S12, S38), of which 2 meet Delta BIC >= 10. Formal depth errors were inflated by sqrt(max(reduced chi-square, 1)) times the residual time-averaging beta factor (observed range 1.28-1.46). The robust inverse-variance model depth across supported sectors is 16828.0 +/- 89.3 ppm; Cochran Q = 0.14 for 1 dof (p = 0.7131). These scaled errors address underestimated scatter and short-timescale correlation, but they are not a full Gaussian-process or physical limb-darkened transit fit.



Published planetary spectrum
Three independent published NIRISS/SOSS reductions are plotted and tested against their own weighted-flat spectra. Showing all reductions makes pipeline-dependent scatter visible; no molecular abundance is inferred from these flatness tests.

Atmospheric evidence: detection, limit, or unknown?
All three archived reductions reject a wavelength-independent dayside spectrum. The molecular attribution is taken from the paper's atmospheric retrieval rather than inferred from the flat-spectrum test reproduced here.

| Species | Status | Evidence | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| H2O | reported detection | 6.4 sigma | peer-reviewed/preprint retrieval |
| CO / CO2 | not established here | no repository retrieval | wavelength structure alone is non-specific |
| O2 | no evidence | not reported | no molecular-oxygen inference |
Primary source: Gressier et al. 2024, JWST-TST DREAMS. Oxygen-bearing molecules are not detections of molecular oxygen (O2) and are not, by themselves, biosignatures.
The system
| Radius | 20.96 Earth radii |
|---|---|
| Mass | 247.91 Earth masses |
| Orbital period | 3.735430 days |
| Transit duration | 4.423 hours |
| Semi-major axis | 0.0515 AU |
| Equilibrium temperature | 1755 K |
| Host and distance | WASP-17 · 405.91 pc |
| Discovery | 2009 · Transit · SuperWASP |
Values are from the exact saved NASA Exoplanet Archive pscomppars row in data/system_parameters.csv.
Data and reproducibility
The observed photometry is the public MAST file tess2019140104343-s0012-0000000066818296-0144-s_lc.fits, TESS Sector 12, collection DOI 10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686. It is stored unmodified. Exact archive URI, URL, retrieval date, and checksum are in data/SOURCE.md.
Run python scripts/analyze_transit.py and python scripts/analyze_multisector.py and python scripts/analyze_atmospheric_evidence.py plus python scripts/analyze_spectrum.py to regenerate the figures and CSVs, then pytest tests/ -v to check the documented values against the real file.
Limitations
- The orbit is circular and the quadratic limb-darkening coefficients are fixed representative values.
- The scaled semi-major axis comes from saved composite values whose uncertainties are not propagated.
- The midpoint is searched within a bounded window; ΔBIC is used as the support gate.
- PDCSAP processing, dilution, stellar variability, timing variations, and covariance can bias the geometry.
- Published global fits with physical priors, instrument-specific detrending, and simultaneous sectors remain authoritative.
References
- Anderson et al. 2010 — discovery reference listed by the NASA Exoplanet Archive.
- Ricker et al. (2015), Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), doi:10.1117/1.JATIS.1.1.014003.
- TESS Team, TESS Light Curves — All Sectors, MAST, doi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686; Sector 12 used here.
- NASA Exoplanet Archive, saved TAP row retrieved 2026-08-15.