JPL SBDB close approaches + interstellar visitors

Small-Body And Visitor Watch

Inspect returned Earth close approaches with their distance and size assumptions visible, then compare known hyperbolic visitors such as 1I, 2I, and 3I/ATLAS.

Reproducible research audit · sensitivity, not hazard

One threshold can hide two different uncertainties.

AstroBis now tests its 0.05 AU / 140 m encounter screen against the JPL three-sigma distance interval and an explicit geometric-albedo bracket. The result is an evidence audit—not a PHA label, impact probability, or planetary-defence recommendation.

SENSITIVITY
Returned coverage
7,500 / 39,427
19.0% chronological prefix
Nominal ≤0.05 AU
586
396 remain inside at 3σ max
Boundary-sensitive
190
32.4% of nominal-close rows
Measured diameters
235
3.1% of returned rows
Horizontal bar comparison: 586 nominal close approaches, 396 robust close approaches, and 190 nominal-close rows whose three-sigma interval crosses 0.05 AU. The size screen contains 61 robust-large, 61 albedo-sensitive, and 464 robust-small rows.
Direct value labels and the table provide the same evidence without relying on colour. The committed figure is regenerated from the bundled JPL response.

What changed scientifically

The original interface converted missing JPL diameters to zero. The new parser preserves missingness, uses measured diameters when present, and otherwise evaluates the standard H–albedo relation. At H=22, the declared albedo range 0.05–0.25 spans 106–237 m; the familiar 140 m value is the pV=0.14 reference, not a measured size.

The source query asks for dates through 2050, but its 7,500-row limit and date sort end the committed response at 2030-Jul-15 16:10. AstroBis now exposes that truncation instead of implying complete 2050 coverage.

Machine-readable auditAlbedo grid CSVJPL CAD contractCNEOS PHA definition
Objects at or above 140 m under each assumed albedo
Geometric albedoNominal-close rows3σ-robust-close rows
0.05122109
0.109286
0.147572
0.206563
0.256159